Geopolitical Alpha - by Marko Papic (Hardcover)
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<p/><br></br><p><b> About the Book </b></p></br></br>"The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking. noted John Kenneth Galbraith. Of Constraints and Preferences focuses on how the world has changed over the past decade, why investment and corporate professionals are not equipped to deal with that change, and why the usual way of doing political and geopolitical analysis is inadequate in the age of uncertainty and disruption. Marko Papc has a unique world view, one that offers investors an original window on geopolitics and the notion of geopolitcal alpha. In Of Contraints and Preference, he shares this world view and explores how a constrait-based approach to looking at the world can produce some powerful investment inghts. Preferences are optional and subject to constraints, whereas constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences. This is the maxim that makes up the constraint framework. It is simple and many will say that they inherently apply it already. But it is difficult remaining disciplined. Policymakers are like water. Predicting their behavior requires understanding of the relief of a hillside and knowing where water will find constraints to movement. e. Machiavelli was therefore wrong. Fortuna always wins. Policymakers are no better at beating fortuna with virtu than water is capable of willing itself to flow against the grain. Sp wamt constraits truly matter? Poltical, Economic & Financial, Geopolitical, and Constitutional. Papic demonstrates how to put an investment thesis together by reviewing the world through thiese constraint lenses. In the process, he shows how to use this einformation to make money or protect it. Like a sports gambler, the investor should not be rooting for one side over the other, but rather thinking about where the bookie/casino (but really, the market) has set the line. And bet against the line. After all, the job of the investor is to not predict who wins, but where the line is set"--<p/><br></br><p><b> Book Synopsis </b></p></br></br><p><b>Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource</b></p> <p><i>Geopolitical Alpha - An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future </i>provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.</p> <p><i>Geopolitical Alpha </i>posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from smoke-filled rooms, and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate <i>Geopolitical Alpha</i>. In the process, the book discusses: </p> <ul> <li>What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade</li> <li>Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk</li> <li>How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns</li> </ul> <p>Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, <i>Geopolitical Alpha</i> belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.</p><p/><br></br><p><b> From the Back Cover </b></p></br></br><p>Many ask who is a Zbigniew Brzezinski or Henry Kissinger of the young generation? The assumption of that question is that there are few with the education, experience, and background who can offer a global approach to the challenges and opportunities of our time. Brzezinski (my late father) and Kissinger at an early age lived abroad, learned foreign languages, and were raised by parents born elsewhere but cast on America's shores by World War II. That gave them special context, and, combined with their education, they were able to redefine America's role away from conventional state-to-state, balance-of-power approaches to ones more in tune with the challenges of their time. Welcome Marko Papic: Born in Southeastern Europe, and after his early education in Canada, now finds himself thinking through geopolitical risk for investors in America. He has written a remarkable book, <i>Geopolitical Alpha</i>, because he generally sees political risk analysts bungling it in terms of their analysis and strategic planning. This is a 'must read' for those interested in global investing and American leadership.<br /><b>--Mark Brzezinski</b>, United States Ambassador (retd.)</p> <p><i>Geopolitical Alpha</i> is quite literally a bookend for a new paradigm in global markets. Geopolitics is now as relevant to investors as macroeconomics and central banking were in the last paradigm.<br /><b>--Alan Howard</b>, Founder, Brevan Howard Asset Management</p> <p>Marko Papic proves a shrewd and humorous translator between the world of investing and policy-making in the pursuit of <i>Geopolitical Alpha</i>. For both traders looking to find the next trade or policymakers looking to make better policy, <i>Geopolitical Alpha</i> can help you to better understand how our world works and how to operationalize that understanding.<br /><b>--Mark Haefele</b>, Chief Investment Officer, UBS</p> <p>From his very first chapter, Marko Papic tells us what not to do. 'Niccoló Machiavelli was wrong, ' he declares boldly. 'Don't study the Prince. Study his constraints.' Drawing on thinkers as varied as Karl Marx and Richards J. Heuer, the guru of intelligence analysis, Papic proceeds to lay out what he calls his constraint-based framework for generating political alpha.<br /><b>--Sebastian Mallaby</b>, author, <i>More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite</i></p> <p>A thought-provoking geopolitical tour d'horizon that should be considered when we discuss the future of a world in disorder. Only the best books create vehement applause and protest alike. Marko Papic has laid the groundwork for both reactions. Therefore, read it!<br /><b>--Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg</b>, Chairman, Spitzberg Partners; former German Minister of Defense</p> <p>Like Tetlock and Gardner's epic work <i>Superforecasting</i>, Marko Papic's <i>Geopolitical Alpha</i> is an important addition to the field of prediction science. Papic's constraint framework is a new powerful tool for an investor's arsenal.<br /><b>--Joseph Dowling</b>, CEO, Brown University Endowment</p> <p>Marko brings geopolitics to life through a very helpful practical framework presented with key insights and wit.<b>--Stephen Gilmore</b>, Chief Investment Officer, New Zealand Superannuation Fund</p> <p>Marko's approach is especially relevant at this juncture. The big shifts he cites are real and highly consequential for institutional investors like us. In fact, gaining the right perspective on them today might mean the difference between future success and failure.<br /><b>--Ziad Hindo, </b> Chief Investment Officer, Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan</p> <p>Marko's style is restless energy in the service of cool, chess-playing logic. He is generous with his knowledge, merciless in drawing conclusions, and outrageously funny in delivery. He attacks the questions that matter most to investors and that experts too often leave shrouded in finely wrought uncertainty. And yet Marko is a superb writer as well as strategist, interspersing his methodological training sessions with vivid anecdotes of a lifelong intellectual journey from a shattered Yugoslavia to the heights of finance. <i>Geopolitical Alpha</i> is now the locus classicus of market-relevant geopolitical analysis.<br /><b>--Matt Gertken</b>, Chief Strategist, <i>Geopolitical Strategy, </i> BCA Research</p><p/><br></br><p><b> About the Author </b></p></br></br><p><b>MARKO PAPIC</b> is a Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, an alternative investment management firm based in California. In 2011, he founded BCA Research's <i>Geopolitical Strategy</i> practice, the world's only dedicated investment consultancy focused on political analysis.
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